In January 2023 the Prime Minister set out three economic priorities: to halve inflation, grow the economy and reduce debt. Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation has now more than halved from a peak of over 11% last autumn to 4.6% in October 2023. The economy has recovered from the pandemic more quickly than first thought, grown more than expected this year, and is forecast to grow in every year of the forecast period. Underlying debt is forecast to fall as a proportion of GDP from 2027-28 and the government has greater headroom against its fiscal rules than at Spring Budget 2023.

The government must continue to bear down on inflation, and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that government policies in the Autumn Statement will reduce inflation next year. With inflation falling and the economy and public finances stabilised after a series of unprecedented shocks, the government can now take the long-term decisions necessary to strengthen the economy and build a brighter future.

The government is focusing on five areas: reducing debt; cutting tax and rewarding hard work; backing British business; building domestic and sustainable energy; and delivering world-class education. The Autumn Statement takes a responsible approach to public spending to keep debt falling, cuts taxes for working people and businesses, reforms welfare to help people into work and removes barriers to business investment to boost growth.

The OBR estimates that government decisions at the Autumn Statement will boost business investment by £14 billion and bring a further 78,000 people into employment by the end of the forecast period. This means that the combined impacts of the Spring and Autumn policy measures will increase the number of people in work by around 200,000 by the end of the forecast. Together, Autumn Statement policies are forecast to increase the economy’s potential output in the medium term by 0.3%. This is in addition to a 0.2% increase to potential GDP resulting from announcements at Spring Budget 2023. These are the two largest increases to labour supply and potential GDP resulting from fiscal policy the OBR has ever scored in a medium-term forecast.

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